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Authors: D Shyjan , Archana Kamath M | Published on: 02-Oct-2023
Introduction
The pandemics' detrimental tentacles had engulfed the entire World, irrespective of the latter's size or growth. India being a home to 136 crore of people was not kept aloof. The grave repercussions of the prevalent disease were aggressively seen in every walks of life. Being a country with high population and relatively blemished health sector, with respect to more or less aligned nations, the severity of the pandemic lay a catastrophe to the lower income groups. The hullabaloo raised during the lock down, to curb the spreading of the pandemic had cost 67% of workers to lose their job. It was even more severe for the urban dwellers with 81% of casual workers remaining unemployed and costing 66% of the rural counter parts to go jobless as per the survey by Azim Premji University, 2020.
Naturally all eyes were up to the saviors of this raw deal; The Government. Since health falls under State List, the state governments, throughout the country remained vigilant and alert from time to time. Regrettable, the Central government remained hushed until the Budget for 2021-22 financial year was presented, with just Rupees 34.8 lakh crores spending, which let down, the spirits and the ardor to fight the repercussions. The hostile greet from the side of the fiscal authorities are literally unwelcomed by the common men. This article tries to comment on some of the important stand points and proposals to survive the ruinous situation sown by the end of the year 2019.
I. A link from the past to the present/ has Covid 19 the real cause for the down turn of the economic situation?
The so called inconceivable target of lifting Indian economy to USD 5 trillion by 2024, seems more challenging, with the Covid 19 pandemic got about by the end of 2019. While keeping a watch on the past records of the growth rates or inequality, unemployment, a matter of concern that could be raised undoubtedly shall be as 'Was India's economic situation a truly created haven for the former to achieve the earmark of USD 5 trillion?'. The gruesome situation which was already gaining its momentum by mid of 2019 was accelerated and marked its peak with the advent of the pandemic. The evidence of the declining growth rates of Gross National Income was visible since 2017-18 and finally culminating to a negative value of -7.9% (Statistical Appendix, Economic Survey, 2021). The repeated iterate or blame for torching the flame of economic slowdown, could arguably be due to the implementation of demonetisation in 2016 and initiation of GST in 2017. The dirigisme government, however was over burdened with highly ambitious schemes for the common good of the nation, keeping its spread to all sectors of the economy, they had also announced 'AtmaNirbhar Bharat' in 2020 with a total outlay of Rupees 20 lakh crores.
Faultily, it remains quite ironic to point out the negligence towards the daily wage earners and the casual employees, while scheming various proposals; India being a home to 67% of household earning less than Rupees 10,000 a month. It also seems grotesque to claim the fact of just top 10% of the population holding 77.4% of the total national wealth, which heightens the country's acclaim as Billionaire Raj (Chancel and Piketty, 2017).
In common parlance, a counter cyclical fiscal measures adoption would do good to an economy like ours whose marginal propensity to consume (MPC) remains high due to the deprived proportion remaining larger than the fortunate (Harilal, 2020). The extent of spending by people depends on their MPC. These expenditures directly generate income directly, and indirectly the multiplier via MPC plays its own role. The Economic Survey, 2020-21 highlights the twin economic shocks generated by the pandemic voraciously. But it is evident from the Budget for 2021-22, that they had drastically failed in addressing the real issue of meeting the needs of the needy at the earliest. It would be advisable to take a look at the comparative growth rate analysis of the major outlays of expenditure for the upcoming year in Table 1.
Table 1. Expenditure on major items (Rs. crore)
Source: Budget at a Glance, Union Budget 2021-22
2019-2020 |
2020-2021 |
2020-2021 |
2021-2022 |
(3)-(2)) |
(4)-(3) |
(3)-(4) |
|
Particulars |
Actuals |
Budget Estimates |
Revised Estimates |
Budget Estimates |
|||
|
(1) |
(2) |
(3) |
(4) |
(5) |
(6) |
(7) |
Pension |
183955 |
210682 |
204393 |
189328 |
-6289 |
-15065 |
-7.4 |
Defence |
318665 |
323053 |
343822 |
347088 |
20769 |
3266 |
0.9 |
Subsidy - |
|
|
|||||
Fertiliser |
81124 |
71309 |
133947 |
79530 |
62638 |
-54417 |
-40.6 |
Food |
108688 |
115570 |
422618 |
242836 |
307048 |
-179782 |
-42.5 |
Petroleum |
38529 |
40915 |
38790 |
12995 |
-2125 |
-25795 |
-66.5 |
Agriculture and Allied Activities |
112452 |
154775 |
145355 |
148301 |
-9420 |
2946 |
2.0 |
Commerce and Industry |
27299 |
27227 |
23515 |
34623 |
-3712 |
11108 |
47.2 |
Education |
89437 |
99312 |
85089 |
93224 |
-14223 |
8135 |
9.6 |
External Affairs |
17246 |
17347 |
15000 |
18155 |
-2347 |
3155 |
21.0 |
Finance |
18535 |
41829 |
50566 |
91916 |
8737 |
41350 |
81.8 |
Health |
63425 |
67484 |
82445 |
74602 |
14961 |
-7843 |
-9.5 |
Home Affairs |
119850 |
114387 |
98106 |
113521 |
-16281 |
15415 |
15.7 |
Interest |
612070 |
708203 |
692900 |
809701 |
-15303 |
116801 |
16.9 |
IT and Telecom |
20597 |
59349 |
32178 |
53108 |
-27171 |
20930 |
65.0 |
Rural Development |
142384 |
144817 |
216342 |
194633 |
71525 |
-21709 |
Reference
Azim Premji University, 'Covid 19 Livelihood Survey - Compilation of Findings', 2020 https://cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Compilation-of-findings-APU-COVID-19-Livelihoods-Survey_Final.pdf Chancel and Piketty. (2017). 'Indian Income Inequality, 1922-2015: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?' W.I.D. World Working Paper.https://wid.World/document/ chanceliketty2017widworld/ Chand, Srivastava. S.K and Singh.J, Discussion Paper. 'Changing Structure of Rural Economy of India Implications for Employment and Growth'. NITI Ayog. http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Rural_Economy_DP.pdf Harilal K.N. 'Real versus Fictitious: The Pandemic Closing In On The World Finance'. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol-55, Issue No. 36, September 2020. Union Budget 2021-22 https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/union-budget-2021-2022 |