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Kerala Economy Journal

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Union budget 2021-22: A reallocation from subsidies to finance

Authors: D Shyjan , Archana Kamath M , Choose Author | Published on: 14-May-2021

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Introduction
The pandemics' detrimental tentacles had engulfed the entire World, irrespective of the latter's size or growth. India being a home to 136 crore of people was not kept aloof. The grave repercussions of the prevalent disease were aggressively seen in every walks of life. Being a country with high population and relatively blemished health sector, with respect to more or less aligned nations, the severity of the pandemic lay a catastrophe to the lower income groups. The hullabaloo raised during the lock down, to curb the spreading of the pandemic had cost 67% of workers to lose their job. It was even more severe for the urban dwellers with 81% of casual workers remaining unemployed and costing 66% of the rural counter parts to go jobless as per the survey by Azim Premji University, 2020.
Naturally all eyes were up to the saviors of this raw deal; The Government. Since health falls under State List, the state governments, throughout the country remained vigilant and alert from time to time. Regrettable, the Central government remained hushed until the Budget for 2021-22 financial year was presented, with just Rupees 34.8 lakh crores spending, which let down, the spirits and the ardor to fight the repercussions. The hostile greet from the side of the fiscal authorities are literally unwelcomed by the common men. This article tries to comment on some of the important stand points and proposals to survive the ruinous situation sown by the end of the year 2019.

I. A link from the past to the present/ has Covid 19 the real cause for the down turn of the economic situation?
The so called inconceivable target of lifting Indian economy to USD 5 trillion by 2024, seems more challenging, with the Covid 19 pandemic got about by the end of 2019. While keeping a watch on the past records of the growth rates or inequality, unemployment, a matter of concern that could be raised undoubtedly shall be as 'Was India's economic situation a truly created haven for the former to achieve the earmark of USD 5 trillion?'. The gruesome situation which was already gaining its momentum by mid of 2019 was accelerated and marked its peak with the advent of the pandemic. The evidence of the declining growth rates of Gross National Income was visible since 2017-18 and finally culminating to a negative value of -7.9% (Statistical Appendix, Economic Survey, 2021). The repeated iterate or blame for torching the flame of economic slowdown, could arguably be due to the implementation of demonetisation in 2016 and initiation of GST in 2017. The dirigisme government, however was over burdened with highly ambitious schemes for the common good of the nation, keeping its spread to all sectors of the economy, they had also announced 'AtmaNirbhar Bharat' in 2020 with a total outlay of Rupees 20 lakh crores.
Faultily, it remains quite ironic to point out the negligence towards the daily wage earners and the casual employees, while scheming various proposals; India being a home to 67% of household earning less than Rupees 10,000 a month. It also seems grotesque to claim the fact of just top 10% of the population holding 77.4% of the total national wealth, which heightens the country's acclaim as Billionaire Raj (Chancel and Piketty, 2017).
In common parlance, a counter cyclical fiscal measures adoption would do good to an economy like ours whose marginal propensity to consume (MPC) remains high due to the deprived proportion remaining larger than the fortunate (Harilal, 2020). The extent of spending by people depends on their MPC. These expenditures directly generate income directly, and indirectly the multiplier via MPC plays its own role. The Economic Survey, 2020-21 highlights the twin economic shocks generated by the pandemic voraciously. But it is evident from the Budget for 2021-22, that they had drastically failed in addressing the real issue of meeting the needs of the needy at the earliest. It would be advisable to take a look at the comparative growth rate analysis of the major outlays of expenditure for the upcoming year in Table 1.
Table 1. Expenditure on major items (Rs. crore)

 

2019-2020

2020-2021

2020-2021

2021-2022

(3)-(2))

(4)-(3)

(3)-(4)

Particulars

Actuals

Budget Estimates

Revised Estimates

Budget Estimates

 

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

Pension

183955

210682

204393

189328

-6289

-15065

-7.4

Defence

318665

323053

343822

347088

20769

3266

0.9

 Subsidy -

         

 

 

Fertiliser

81124

71309

133947

79530

62638

-54417

-40.6

Food

108688

115570

422618

242836

307048

-179782

-42.5

Petroleum

38529

40915

38790

12995

-2125

-25795

-66.5

Agriculture and Allied Activities

112452

154775

145355

148301

-9420

2946

2.0

Commerce and Industry

27299

27227

23515

34623

-3712

11108

47.2

Education

89437

99312

85089

93224

-14223

8135

9.6

External Affairs

17246

17347

15000

18155

-2347

3155

21.0

Finance

18535

41829

50566

91916

8737

41350

81.8

Health

63425

67484

82445

74602

14961

-7843

-9.5

Home Affairs

119850

114387

98106

113521

-16281

15415

15.7

Interest

612070

708203

692900

809701

-15303

116801

16.9

IT and Telecom

20597

59349

32178

53108

-27171

20930

65.0

Rural Development

142384

144817

216342

194633

71525

-21709

-10.0

Social Welfare

44649

53876

39629

48460

-14247

8831

22.3

Urban Development

42054

50040

46791

54581

-3249

7790

16.6

Grand Total

2686330

3042230

 

Reference

Azim Premji University, 'Covid 19 Livelihood Survey - Compilation of Findings', 2020  https://cse.azimpremjiuniversity.edu.in/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/Compilation-of-findings-APU-COVID-19-Livelihoods-Survey_Final.pdf
Chancel and Piketty. (2017). 'Indian Income Inequality, 1922-2015: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?' W.I.D. World Working Paper.https://wid.World/document/ chanceliketty2017widworld/
Chand, Srivastava. S.K and Singh.J, Discussion Paper. 'Changing Structure of Rural Economy of India Implications for Employment and Growth'. NITI Ayog. http://niti.gov.in/writereaddata/files/document_publication/Rural_Economy_DP.pdf
Harilal K.N. 'Real versus Fictitious: The Pandemic Closing In On The World Finance'.  Economic and Political Weekly, Vol-55, Issue No. 36, September 2020.
Union Budget 2021-22 https://www.india.gov.in/spotlight/union-budget-2021-2022