Weekly Updates on the Indian Economy
(08/01/2022 to 14/01/2022)
- National Accounts and State of the Economy
- FY22 GDP growth put at 9.2% as agri, manufacturing shine
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/fy22-gdp-growth-put-at-92-as-agri-manufacturing-shine/article38178306.ece
- Economic laws don’t always hold
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/economic-laws-dont-always-hold/article38205860.ece
- Job scene has improved: Economic Survey
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/economic-survey-says-employment-scenario-improving-despite-pandemic/article38214192.ece
- ‘ India must strive to be amongst the top 25 in Global Innovation Index’
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/india-must-strive-to-be-amongst-the-top-25-in-global-innovation-index-piyush-goyal/article38215973.ece#:~:text=Indian%20startups%20turned%20Covid%2D19,Industry%20Minister%20Piyush%20Goyal%20today.
- Misleading picture of household wealth
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/columns/c-p-chandrasekhar/misleading-picture-of-household-wealth/article38223188.ece
- Real GDP to grow at around 9.5% in FY22: SBI Ecowrap
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/real-gdp-to-grow-at-around-9-5-in-fy22-sbi-ecowrap-122010800576_1.html
- Inflation likely accelerated to a six-month high in Dec: Reuters poll
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/inflation-likely-accelerated-to-a-six-month-high-in-dec-reuters-poll-122011000254_1.html
- Citigroup revises India GDP forecast down by 80 bps to 9% for FY22
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/citigroup-revises-india-gdp-forecast-down-by-80-bps-to-9-for-fy22-122011001075_1.html
- Employment in 9 select sectors rose 200,000 to 31 mn in July-Sept
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/employment-in-9-select-sectors-rose-200-000-to-31-mn-in-july-sept-122011001312_1.html
- Indian economy to see 9.5% growth this fiscal: Ex-chief economic adviser
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/indian-economy-to-see-9-5-growth-this-fiscal-ex-chief-economic-adviser-122011100527_1.html
- India will lead global growth rates in this decade: N Chandrasekaran
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-will-lead-global-growth-rates-in-this-decade-n-chandrasekaran-122011100747_1.html
- Fracture of interstate relations India's top risk stemming from Covid: WEF
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/fracture-of-interstate-relations-india-s-top-risk-stemming-from-covid-wef-122011100801_1.html
- India's fuel consumption shows almost no growth in December 2021
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-fuel-consumption-shows-almost-no-growth-in-december-2021-122011101291_1.html
- High WPI inflation 'blessing in disguise' for toll road projects: Icra
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/high-wpi-inflation-blessing-in-disguise-for-toll-road-projects-icra-122011101374_1.html
- World Bank projects India's GDP growth at 8.3% for FY22, 8.7% for FY23
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/world-bank-upgrades-india-s-gdp-growth-forecast-to-8-7-for-fy23-122011101485_1.html
- As many kids die before their 5th birthday in UP as in Afghanistan: Report
https://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/as-many-kids-die-before-their-5th-birthday-in-up-as-in-afghanistan-report-122011200132_1.html
- Rural Business confidence index touches 63.9 in Oct 21: CRIF Highmark-CII
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/rural-business-confidence-index-touches-63-9-in-oct-21-crif-highmark-cii-122011200721_1.html
- Dec retail inflation rises to 6-month high of 5.59%; Nov IIP growth at 1.4%
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/dec-retail-inflation-rises-to-5-59-nov-iip-growth-at-1-4-122011201022_1.html
- Nearly 2 mn tonnes of free foodgrains distributed so far under PMGKAY: Govt
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/nearly-2-mn-tonnes-of-free-foodgrains-distributed-so-far-under-pmgkay-govt-122011201232_1.html
- UBS slashes FY22 GDP forecast to 9.1%; ups projection for FY23 to 8.2%
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/ubs-slashes-fy22-gdp-forecast-to-9-1-ups-projection-for-fy23-to-8-2-122011201263_1.html
- Financial immunity gains currency in post-pandemic world: Survey
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/financial-immunity-gains-currency-in-post-pandemic-world-survey-122011201518_1.html
- Economy goes down when number of days with extreme rainfall go up: Study
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/economy-goes-down-when-number-of-days-with-extreme-rainfall-go-up-study-122011300098_1.html
- India's economy recovery on 'solid path' amid fast vaccination progress: UN
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-economy-recovery-on-solid-path-amid-fast-vaccination-progress-un-122011301462_1.html
- India's forest cover growth slows to 8-year low in 2021: Survey
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-forest-cover-growth-slows-to-8-year-low-in-2021-survey-122011301593_1.html
- Covid-19: India Inc welcomes PM's emphasis on maintaining economic momentum
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/covid-19-india-inc-welcomes-pm-s-emphasis-on-maintaining-economic-momentum-122011301507_1.html
- India’s policies should be pro-innovation: NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/indias-policies-should-be-pro-innovation-niti-aayog-ceo-amitabh-kant/articleshow/88830706.cms
- Food prices matter the most to households inflation expectation: RBI economists
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/food-prices-matter-the-most-to-households-inflation-expectation-rbi-economists/articleshow/88838663.cms
- Need to make our growth much more equitable: Niti Aayog VC Rajiv Kumar
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/need-to-make-our-growth-much-more-equitable-niti-aayog-vc-rajiv-kumar/articleshow/88881654.cms
- Market’s sensitivity to change in eco growth outlook remains high: Nomura
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/markets-sensitivity-to-change-in-eco-growth-outlook-remains-high-nomura/articleshow/88845981.cms
- Industry leaders confident about India's economic recovery, expansion: Survey
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/industry-leaders-confident-about-indias-economic-recovery-expansion-survey/articleshow/88892956.cms
- Quick peak may limit 3rd wave’s impact on economy: CRISIL
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/quick-peak-may-limit-3rd-waves-impact-on-economy-crisil/articleshow/88804337.cms
- How the Rise of Global Inflation Will Play Out in Indian Politics
https://thewire.in/economy/how-the-rise-of-global-inflation-will-play-out-in-indian-politics
- The Curious Case of India's Millions of ‘Missing’ Poor People
https://thewire.in/economy/poverty-data-india-niti-aayog
- Punjab: How Successive Govts Have Failed Unemployed Youth With Promise of Jobs
https://thewire.in/labour/punjab-how-successive-govts-have-failed-unemployed-youth-with-promise-of-jobs
- ‘India to surpass Japan as Asia’s 2nd largest economy by 2030’
https://www.thehindu.com/business/india-to-surpass-japan-as-asias-2nd-largest-economy-by-2030/article38195975.ece
- Public Finance
- Govt may rein in fiscal deficit at 6.8% of GDP: First advance estimates
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/govt-may-rein-in-fiscal-deficit-at-6-8-of-gdp-first-advance-estimates-122010800061_1.html
- General govt fiscal deficit estimated at 10.4% in FY2022: Report
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/general-govt-fiscal-deficit-estimated-at-10-4-in-fy2022-report-122011200926_1.html
- Bigger capex push likely in Budget to support growth
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/bigger-capex-push-likely-in-budget-to-support-growth/articleshow/88887465.cms
- Budget session of Parliament to commence on January 31; Union Budget to be presented on February 1
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/budget-session-of-parliament-from-jan-31-to-apr-8-sources/articleshow/88893280.cms
Taxation
- 1% GST on sweets, namkeens sold over counter, rules Karnataka AAR
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/1-gst-for-sweets-namkeens-sold-over-the-counter-rules-karnataka-aar/article38224348.ece#:~:text=A%20sweet%20shop%20manufacturing%20and,Ruling%20(KAAR)%20has%20said.
- Govt should offer PLI for pesticide sector, reduce GST to 6%: BestAgro
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/govt-should-offer-pli-for-pesticide-sector-reduce-gst-to-6-bestagro/article38239357.ece#:~:text=On%20Budget%20expectations%2C%20he%20said,objective%20of%20doubling%20farmer's%20income.
- Now, AAAR rules ready-to-eat fryums papad to draw 18% GST
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/now-aaar-rules-ready-to-eat-fryums-papad-to-draw-18-gst-122011100035_1.html
- Health care services offered on flat fee exempt from GST: AAR
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/health-care-services-offered-on-flat-fee-exempt-from-gst-aar-122011300037_1.html
- ‘Under estimate, over achieve’: Why Modi govt could set low tax collection target in Budget
https://theprint.in/economy/under-estimate-over-achieve-why-modi-govt-could-set-low-tax-collection-target-in-budget/800817/
- GST evasion: notices issued, but ‘no record of outcome’
https://www.thehindu.com/business/gst-evasion-notices-issued-but-no-record-of-outcome/article38198144.ece
- Banking and Monetary Policy
- FM expects credit demand to pick up soon
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/money-and-banking/review-meeting-with-bank-chiefs-fm-sitharaman-expects-credit-demand-to-pick-up-soon/article38170065.ece
- Banks must hit a ‘pause’ on retail loans
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/banks-must-hit-a-pause-on-retail-loans/article38239064.ece
- Budget unlikely to allocate any fund for bank recapitalisation: Report
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/budget-unlikely-to-allocate-any-fund-for-bank-recapitalisation-report/articleshow/88877672.cms
- Credit offtake from scheduled commercial banks to MSME sectors surge: CMIE
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/credit-offtake-from-scheduled-commercial-banks-to-msme-sectors-surge-cmie/articleshow/88875070.cms
- Ex-RBI Governor Urjit Patel Appointed VP of Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank
https://thewire.in/banking/ex-rbi-governor-urjit-patel-appointed-vp-of-asian-infrastructure-investment-bank
- External Sector
- Widening CAD may not be an immediate cause of worry
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/data-stories/data-focus/data-focus-widening-cad-may-not-be-an-immediate-cause-of-worry/article38166326.ece
- Seafood exports to miss $7.8-billion target
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/omicron-effect-seafood-export-target-to-be-missed-on-subdued-overseas-demand/article38214355.ece#:~:text=India's%20seafood%20exports%20are%20unlikely,put%20the%20exporters%20on%20tenterhooks.
- India’s dairy exports may grow significantly next decade: Report
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/indias-dairy-exports-may-grow-significantly-next-decade-report/article64815111.ece#:~:text=The%20global%20per%20capita%20consumption,annum%20over%20the%20next%20decade.&text=But%20the%20share%20of%20value,40%20per%20cent%20by%202025.
- India’s exports grow 33.16% to $7.63 b during Jan 1-7
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/indias-exports-grow-3316-to-763-b-during-jan-1-7/article38239421.ece
- India's tariff gap has widened over China over two years on the trot
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-tariff-gap-has-widened-over-china-over-two-years-on-the-trot-122011101344_1.html
- India, South Korea set $50 billion bilateral trade target before 2030
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-south-korea-set-50-billion-bilateral-trade-target-before-2030-122011101624_1.html
- Textiles, apparel exports rise to $29.8 billion during April-December
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/textiles-apparel-exports-rise-to-29-8-billion-during-april-december-122011201221_1.html
- India, UK FTA to boost cooperation in tourism, tech, startups: Piyush Goyal
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-uk-fta-to-boost-cooperation-in-tourism-tech-startups-piyush-goyal-122011300779_1.html
- India's share of global merchandise exports at an all-time high: Report
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-share-of-global-merchandise-exports-at-an-all-time-high-report-122011301267_1.html
- India's forex reserves to face $256 billion overseas debt challenge in next 12 months
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/finance/indias-forex-reserves-to-face-256-billion-overseas-debt-challenge-in-next-12-months/articleshow/88880502.cms
- High coal prices to intensify India’s efforts to curb imports, lift domestic supplies
https://theprint.in/economy/high-coal-prices-to-intensify-indias-efforts-to-curb-imports-lift-domestic-supplies/802396/
- Agriculture and Rural Economy
- MP farmers yet to get crop insurance claims of 2020 kharif season
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/mp-farmers-yet-to-get-crop-insurance-claims-of-2020-kharif-season/article38166374.ece
- Farm sector set to grow at 3.9% in FY22: First advance estimates
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/farm-sector-set-to-grow-at-3-9-in-fy22-first-advance-estimates-122010701470_1.html
- Retail edible oil prices show declining trend from Oct 2021: Govt
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/retail-edible-oil-prices-show-declining-trend-from-oct-2021-govt-122011101441_1.html
- Assam government to set up Agricultural Commission
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/assam-government-to-set-up-agricultural-commission/articleshow/88883852.cms
- K’taka should ramp up production of millets like ragi: Union Food Secretary
https://theprint.in/economy/ktaka-should-ramp-up-production-of-millets-like-ragi-union-food-secretary/798925/
- Industry, Manufacturing, Services and Technology
- Annual tractor production crosses 1 million, exports surpass 1 lakh for the 1st time in 2021
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/annual-tractor-production-crosses-1-m-exports-surpass-1-lakh-for-the-1st-time-in-2021/article64815236.ece#:~:text=Despite%20hitting%20a%2020%2Dmonth,the%20first%20time%20in%20history.
- IIP drops to 1.4% in Nov; Dec retail inflation at five-month high 5.59%
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/iip-drops-to-14-in-nov-dec-retail-inflation-at-five-month-high-559/article38256544.ece#:~:text=Discouraging%20news%20came%20on%20the,5.59%20per%20cent%20in%20December.
- Business volume down 45% due to third Covid wave, says CAIT
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/business-volume-down-45-due-to-third-wave-says-cait-122010800726_1.html
- Factory output decelerates in November, retail inflation spikes in December
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/factory-output-decelerates-in-nov-retail-inflation-shoots-up-in-december-122011201099_1.html
- Third wave might shave 10% off mall revenue this fiscal, says report
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/third-wave-might-shave-10-off-mall-revenue-this-fiscal-says-report-122011201393_1.html
- Piyush Goyal appeals to industry to prepay MSMEs to boost employment
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/piyush-goyal-appeals-to-industry-to-prepay-msmes-to-boost-employment-122011300100_1.html
- India's diabetes care market to reach $60 bn in next 10 yrs: Report
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/india-s-diabetes-care-market-to-reach-60-bn-in-next-10-yrs-report-122011300250_1.html
- Gold demand drops as coronavirus shrinks big, fat Indian weddings
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/gold-demand-drops-as-coronavirus-shrinks-big-fat-indian-weddings-122011300452_1.html
- Icra revises downwards revenue growth forecast for auto component industry
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/icra-revises-downwards-revenue-growth-forecast-for-auto-component-industry-122011300678_1.html
- Ficci suggests support measures for housing sector in Budget
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/policy/ficci-suggests-support-measures-for-housing-sector-in-budget/articleshow/88859575.cms
- Columns by Paul Krugman/ Joseph Stiglitz
- Argentina's COVID Miracle | by Joseph E. Stiglitz - Project Syndicate
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/argentina-covid-economic-miracle-by-joseph-e-stiglitz-2022-01?barrier=accesspaylog
- Opinion | The Secret Triumph of Economic Policy
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/13/opinion/pandemic-economic-recovery.html
- Bitcoin, Inflation and the Misguided Fear of Government Money Creation - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/11/opinion/bitcoin-inflation-deficit-spending.html
- Opinion | Crusading for God, Family and … Bitcoin?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/10/opinion/crypto-cryptocurrency-money-conspiracy.html
- High Inflation May Not Disappear in 2022 - The New York Times
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/07/opinion/inflation-2022-us-economy.html
- Evaluating economic data during Covid times
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinion/evaluating-economic-data-during-covid-times
- The case for the Goldilocks economy
https://www.sltrib.com/opinion/commentary/2022/01/10/paul-krugman-case/
- Opinion: The viral lies that keep killing us
https://www.palmbeachpost.com/story/opinion/2022/01/09/krugman-gop-succeed-pushing-viral-lies-covid-and-its-treatments/9093995002/
- Other Articles/ Columns
- Economic development, the nutrition trap, and metabolic disease
https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/human-development/economic-development-the-nutrition-trap-and-metabolic-disease.html
- Gender-caste intersectionality in discrimination: Do patients care about doctor’s social identity?
https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/social-identity/gender-caste-intersectionality-in-discrimination-do-patients-care-about-doctor-s-social-identity.html
- Evaluating the risks in opening up the banking sector
https://www.ideasforindia.in/topics/money-finance/evaluating-the-risks-in-opening-up-the-banking-sector.html
- What is ‘Formalisation’ of the Economy?
https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/what-formalisation-economy?utm_source=website&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=homepage&utm_content=Top-article
Commentary
- Corporatising Indian Agriculture
The (Repealed) Union Contract Farming Act, 2020
https://www.epw.in/journal/2022/2/commentary/repealed-union-contract-farming-act-2020.html
- Need for a Comprehensive Monitoring Framework of Indian Forests
https://www.epw.in/journal/2022/2/commentary/need-comprehensive-monitoring-framework-indian.html
- Prevalence and Contexts
Missing Children in India
https://www.epw.in/journal/2022/2/commentary/missing-children-india.html
- Rural Healthcare
The Second Wave of COVID-19 and Beyond
https://www.epw.in/journal/2022/2/commentary/second-wave-covid-19-and-beyond.html
Perspectives
- An Analysis of PLFS Data
Loss of Job, Work, and Income in the Time of COVID-19
https://www.epw.in/journal/2022/2/perspectives/loss-job-work-and-income-time-covid-19.html
Special Articles
- Determinants of Utilisation and Their Implications
Portability in the Public Distribution System
https://www.epw.in/journal/2022/2/special-articles/portability-public-distribution-system.html
- Inflation Heresies
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/correct-policies-to-fight-inflation-depend-on-context-by-dani-rodrik-2022-01?a_la=english&a_d=61dd4d84ea6906fecac9753b&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=correct-policies-to-fight-inflation-depend-on-context-by-dani-rodrik-2022-01&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=&barrier=accesspaylog
- Submerged by COVID
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/unrealistically-rosy-forecasts-for-emerging-economies-this-year-by-barry-eichengreen-2022-01?a_la=english&a_d=61deba11be57f3e70932c996&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=unrealistically-rosy-forecasts-for-emerging-economies-this-year-by-barry-eichengreen-2022-01&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=&barrier=accesspaylog
- The Price Increases that Matter for the Poor
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tackling-the-food-price-inflation-problem-by-jayati-ghosh-2022-01?a_la=english&a_d=61ded9bfbe57f3e7099216c1&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=tackling-the-food-price-inflation-problem-by-jayati-ghosh-2022-01&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=&barrier=accesspaylog
- A Bad Year for Markets?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stock-markets-2022-five-day-rule-by-jim-o-neill-2022-01?a_la=english&a_d=61e00065fb40e3ab0b0fc47b&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=stock-markets-2022-five-day-rule-by-jim-o-neill-2022-01&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=&barrier=accesspaylog
- What Biden Should Do on Trade
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-joe-biden-asia-pacific-trade-priority-by-takatoshi-ito-2022-01?a_la=english&a_d=61e02a65fb40e3ab0b8e0bec&a_m=&a_a=click&a_s=&a_p=%2Fsection%2Feconomics&a_li=america-joe-biden-asia-pacific-trade-priority-by-takatoshi-ito-2022-01&a_pa=section-commentaries&a_ps=&a_ms=&a_r=&barrier=accesspaylog
- Will Americans’ pandemic savings stash keep the economy rolling?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/will-households-excess-savings-keep-the-american-economy-afloat/21807127
- Will remote work stick after the pandemic?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2022/01/15/will-remote-work-stick-after-the-pandemic
- The $28trn global reach of Asian finance
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/the-28trn-global-reach-of-asian-finance/21807121
- News on Kerala
- 'Guest worker' conundrum: Kerala is facing its own migrant labour crisis
https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/guest-worker-conundrum-kerala-is-facing-its-own-migrant-labour-crisis-122011201655_1.html
- PDS hit owing to server glitch
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/pds-hit-owing-to-server-glitch/article38237512.ece
- Kerala High Court strikes down rule on property tax fixation
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/hc-strikes-down-rule-on-property-tax-fixation/article38243321.ece
- Surge in COVID case graph
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/kerala/surge-in-covid-case-graph/article38257479.ece
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